Romania’s GDP per capita is expected to increase by 16.1% in real terms over the next five years, reaching 81.1% of the EU average by 2030, up from 74.6% in 2025, according to the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook. The indicator, measured at purchasing power parity (PPP), is projected to further climb to 83.1% of the EU average by 2031.
The projected advance reflects both cumulative real GDP growth of 12.3% over the period and a 3.3% decline in population, which mechanically boosts per capita figures.
In the region, the Republic of Moldova is expected to post the fastest growth in GDP per capita, with a 27.6% increase over the same five-year horizon. This would lift Moldova from 30.4% of the EU average in 2025 to 36.3% in 2030 and 37.8% in 2031.
The IMF noted a broadly consistent pattern across Europe, where lower-income economies tend to grow faster in per capita terms, gradually converging toward the EU average. Within this framework, both Romania and Moldova stand out with relatively strong growth prospects compared to peers at similar income levels.
iulian@romania-insider.com
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