The Social Democratic Party (PSD) is to decide on Monday, April 20, whether to withdraw political support for Liberal (PNL) prime minister Ilie Bolojan, who leads the executive with the political support of the PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR.
In the most likely case that this decision is made, the most widely circulated scenario is the withdrawal of PSD ministers from the government. The pressure aims to force the PNL to come up with a different prime minister.
Separately, PNL and USR will have coordinated meetings also on April 20, at the same time, to react to the decision that will be made at PSD, according to Cursdeguvernare.ro. For now, both parties support Ilie Bolojan as the coalition’s prime minister.
UDMR also announced that it will not support the removal of the prime minister. In his turn, Ilie Bolojan said that he will not resign from the position of prime minister.
President Nicușor Dan announced, in an interview with Europa FM, that he will position himself in the middle, as a mediator, that for now he does not support Ilie Bolojan for the position of prime minister, but will oppose a PSD-AUR governing majority.
Analysts foresee several scenarios, but the most likely scenario will be the appointment of interim ministers – in case PSD withdraws its ministers – who will be able to ensure the functioning of the government for 45 days, the backup solution for PSD being to bring down the government through a motion of censure: either its own, or to support the motion of censure announced by AUR.
PSD is also counting on the fact that part of the PNL – the wing favourable to the alliance with PSD since the time of the USL – could betray the party’s prime minister and could have support for another Liberal nomination. For now, this wing of the PNL – led by Hubert Thuma, president of the Ilfov County Council – does not have a majority in the party.
Another option under discussion is the functioning of the Bolojan government in a minority coalition format, with occasional support from the PSD, until the next spring election, when the prime minister would be appointed by the PSD. PSD said it would not support a minority cabinet.
Finally, PSD leader Sorin Grindeanu stated that his party is ready to take over the prime ministership if this will emerge as a solution for keeping the coalition alive. PNL has not expressed a position about such a scenario.
The deterioration of the political climate marks a deviation from the ongoing negotiations between visibly opposed interests of the Liberals (PNL) and Social Democrats (PSD) that resulted in sluggish and partial reforms, yet with a positive impact on the fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stabilisation. Formally, PSD accuses extreme, unnecessary negative impact on low-income households, while informally, PSD leader Grindeanu is pressed by entrenched interests to avoid measures that would put their revenues at risk.
There are possible out-of-the-box solutions that may emerge during the consultations president Nicusor Dan is expected to call for the coming days. Among these, quasi-minority governments of either PM Bolojan (with PNL, USR, and UDMR) or PSD (with UDMR), with targeted support from the other parties in the ruling coalition, strictly for the ruling strategy endorsed last June.
iulian@romania-insider.com
(Photo source: Inquam Photos /George Călin)
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