Over the 27 months since the last monetary policy action, the headline inflation hovered between 4.6% y/y and 10.9% y/y.
As inflation is expected to subside starting with the beginning of 2027, independent analysts expect a looser monetary policy rate – but no sooner than May 2027. The criterion, mentioned in an Erste Group research note, is that headline inflation drops sustainably below the policy rate.
In the monetary policy meeting, the BNR board examined and approved the November 2026 Inflation Report, which incorporates the latest available data and information.
According to the forecast in the Report, the annual inflation rate will pick up slightly in the closing months of 2026, mainly reflecting the influences expected to stem from the recent hikes in fuel and energy prices and from the developments in the leu’s exchange rate.
Nevertheless, it will then embark on a gradually downward course, re-entering the variation band of the target in 2028 Q1, under the impact of disinflationary base effects associated with the price increases generated in 2026 by the energy shock and by the severe drought, as well as amid the strengthening of underlying disinflationary pressures, especially those from the aggregate demand deficit; the latter is anticipated to widen in 2026 H2 as well – given the budgetary correction, but also the energy crisis – and to progressively narrow thereafter, on a visibly higher path, however, than previously envisaged.
But the inflation trajectory and further monetary policy developments are under the impact of fiscal policy, energy prices and the actions taken by major global central banks, BNR said in the release issued along with the monetary policy decision.
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