The annual decline was considerably milder than the falls of 6.6% y/y and 5.2% y/y recorded in Q2 and Q1, respectively.
Broadly speaking, Romanians’ real wages have returned to the levels seen in late 2023, before the former government of prime minister Marcel Ciolacu pushed up public pensions and wages while also hiking the statutory minimum wage during an intense electoral year. Public wages and pensions were frozen in 2025 and 2026, with the private sector apparently balancing the overall real dynamics of wages over the past year.
Wages are close to bottoming out after a sharp correction driven by the fiscal consolidation measures required in the wake of the elections. The 5.4% y/y increase in average net nominal wages in Q3 was the strongest in five quarters, but inflation proved resilient at 7.0% y/y. Without the impact of fuel prices, wages would have roughly stabilised in annual terms in Q3.
However, the recovery is likely to be slow amid weak economic growth, which is expected to be negative this year and arguably remain subdued in 2027. The state forecasting body CNP expects real average wages to increase by a modest 0.4% y/y in 2027, in line with GDP growth of 1.7%, following an estimated decline of 3.3% y/y in 2026, when GDP is forecast to contract by 0.4%. Romanian employees’ average wages are expected to gain further momentum, with real growth rates of 1.8% in 2028 and 2.0% in 2029.
Wage dynamics were also reflected in retail sales, whose annual decline eased to 2.7% in Q3, from more than 5% in both Q1 and Q2.
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