In November, AUR fell to 34-35%, from 38-40% in previous polls, Cursdeguvernare.ro reported.
Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) increased its support to 22-24% after returning to government, recovering from a historic low of around 18% in INSCOP’s May 2026 measurements, following the collapse of the Ilie Bolojan government.
In an analysis published on Facebook, Ștefureac highlighted several atypical developments in voting intentions, from the PNL’s sharp rise and subsequent decline to PSD’s electoral recovery and the first significant drop in AUR’s support after a prolonged period of stability.
According to the INSCOP director, PNL gained approximately six percentage points after the no-confidence motion brought by PSD and AUR that led to the fall of the Ilie Bolojan government, reaching 20-22% in May 2026. However, the increase proved temporary, with the five months of interim government eroding the electoral gains.
In November, the Liberals returned to their April level, but Ștefureac believes the party retains potential for growth in opposition, particularly around Ilie Bolojan.
By contrast, PSD lost 3-4 percentage points after the no-confidence motion but recovered almost all of that ground while in opposition. Its return to government brought a further increase of 4-5 percentage points, taking its support to 22-24% in November. The sociologist warned, however, that participation in government amid a difficult economic context could lead to a fresh decline in the party’s support.
AUR loses ground for the first time in 18 months
One of the most significant changes highlighted by Ștefureac concerns AUR. After maintaining support of 38-40% in polls for 18 months, the party fell to 34-35% in November.
The INSCOP director believes the loss of 4-5 percentage points could be explained by some former PSD voters returning to the Social Democrats after the party re-entered government.
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