Almost equal shares of the Romanians polled by the Political Rating Agency in April, namely some 21%, expect the incumbent ruling coalition to survive at least until April 2027 – when the prime ministership transfer is expected to help it survive by the end of its term in late 2028 – and fall apart within a couple of months.
Only 10.5% of those polled expect a faster collapse, while 16% said that the coalition “is as dismantled” – meaning it apparently remains in place but no longer functions as a coalition – an ambiguous option that still does not indicate whether formal collapse is expected or this situation can continue indefinitely.
A wide portion of over 30% of those polled were either not aware of political developments (13.2%) or honestly admitted that they can not predict the future development (18.1%) – which is quite explainable given the frequent warnings issued by the Social Democrats (PSD) about leaving the ruling coalition.
When it comes to the political orientation of those polled, the voters of the reformist USR and Liberal Party (PNL) – over 50% of them for each of the two parties – as well as those of the Hungarian party UDMR (43%) are rather inclined to believe that the ruling coalition will survive until April 2027 (hence very likely by the end of its term). Voters of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) tend to believe the ruling coalition will collapse within several months (28.6%), but the share of those expecting the coalition to survive in the long term is also not much lower (22.3%).
The survey was published less than a week before the PSD announced an internal referendum on its role in the ruling coalition. The 4,000-5,000 regional delegates of the party are expected to decide whether to further extend political support for Liberal prime minister Ilie Bolojan and to further accept the reformist Save Romania Union (USR) as a partner in the ruling coalition.
The referendum, with a broadly expected outcome, has to be operationalised later, and the only action PSD can take is to pull out of the ruling coalition. However, the referendum may ignite broader negotiations involving president Nicusor Dan – a staunch advocate of the ruling coalition under its format.
The Poll/Int Romania Barometer, April 2026 wave, conducted by the Political Rating Agency, indicated a state of heightened dissatisfaction in society and a high level of socio-political stress, according to the interpretation given by B1tv.ro.
The question regarding the functioning of the political system revealed one of the most important conclusions of the barometer: “Thinking about the political system in Romania, which of the following options best describes it?”
The largest part of those polled, 39.2%, claimed that the political system is so flawed that it must be completely replaced, by any means. However, 29.9% believe that the political system needs profound changes (but through democratic means). Notably, no option was given to answer for those opting for non-democratic means.
A significant share of 16.5% said that the political system has some problems, but can be gradually improved. A minority of 3.3% of respondents believe it works well and does not need major changes. Finally, 11.2% of survey participants did not respond.
iulian@romania-insider.com
(Photo source: Inquam Photos/Octav Ganea)
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