Caution is becoming the new normal, while acute concern is being replaced by cautious relaxation, according to the evolution of the CONFIDEX Index, the confidence barometer of Romanian managers in the economy, over the past six years. At the same time, managers consistently overestimated the risk of a depreciation of the local currency during this period.
The Index is carried out regularly by Impetum Group in partnership with Romanian Business Leaders (RBL). The change was discussed during a debate organized by Impetum with representatives of the Romanian business environment, attended by Florian Libocor (chief economist BRD), Alexandru Dincovici (general director RBL), Victor Vișan (CEO & founder FormTex), and Andrei Cionca (CEO and co-founder Impetum Group).
Caution gives stability
During the debate, speakers outlined that managers who declare themselves cautious give stability to the confidence index, therefore preventing very large fluctuations in confidence. Starting with 2022, the “Cautious” segment has remained stable, around 37–42%, most likely based on persistent economic uncertainties. The other two categories, “Relaxed” and “Concerned”, have been much more volatile.
The “Relaxed” segment started with a moderate percentage in 2020 (26%) and saw a visible decline in 2021, reflecting the uncertainties and fears during the pandemic period. From 2022, the segment grew steadily, reaching a peak of 41% in H1 2023, indicating an increase in confidence and optimism among the population. Subsequently, the percentage fluctuated slightly but remained relatively high, suggesting a stabilization of positive sentiment.
The “Concerned” segment initially had a high percentage (39% in Q2 2020), reflecting anxieties related to the pandemic and economic impact, and gradually decreased until 2023 (22%), as the situation improved. From the second half of 2024, and in 2025, the percentage increased slightly again (up to 34% in H2 2024), against the background of new uncertainty factors (inflation, geopolitics).
Overestimated currency risks
The analysis further showed that although the exchange rate has proven to be the most stable macro indicator in Romania, it has also been the least “credible” for the business environment.
“In practice, managers overestimate currency risk and base their pricing strategies and budgets on a depreciation scenario, which, historically in recent years, has not materialized to the anticipated magnitude,” the report stipulated.
The share of managers who anticipated a depreciation of the leu has consistently been high, fluctuating between 41% (H1 2023) and 73% (H2 2024), while the actual exchange rate of the National Bank of Romania remained anchored within an extremely narrow range, 4.92 – 4.98 RON/EUR.
Among the possible reasons for this persistent pessimism, Impetum included the memory effect (the recollection of historical depreciation periods of the leu), subjective correlation (the tendency to associate rising prices with an automatic weakening of the leu against the euro), and macro uncertainty (the twin deficits in trade and budget, which theoretically put pressure on the leu).
Recession & Inflation
Impetum’s analysis also looked at managers’ estimates regarding GDP evolution, noting that when a worsening situation is anticipated, decision-makers take measures ahead of such developments, which does not happen when economic growth is anticipated.
Managers’ perception also tended to be a lagging indicator for positive economic shocks, but a leading indicator for periods of recession/stagnation, the analysis showed. As such, Romanian managers were more cautious in declaring boom periods but very quick in signaling crises. At the same time, they often tended to overlap high inflation with GDP decline.
Regarding inflation, the analysis of managers’ perceptions versus reality showed several distinct stages over time. In 2021-2022, managers were an excellent “leading” (anticipatory) indicator. As early as H2 2021, pessimism jumped to 85%, anticipating the inflation surge that followed in 2022. When actual inflation was still below 10%, managers were already close to consensus (88%) that prices would explode.
In H2 of 2022, inflation reached a maximum of 16.4% (Q4 2022), and the share of those anticipating increases dropped slightly, a sign that managers felt the “ceiling” of price increases had been reached by Q2 of 2022. Between 2023 and 2024, inflation decreased rapidly to 4.9%, but managers remained skeptical that prices would truly decrease, even if the inflation rate (the speed of increase) had slowed.
At present, a pessimistic re-convergence is observed. Managers seem to have “read” the new inflation wave correctly before it was fully reflected in official data. The percentage of managers expecting rising inflation climbed again to around 56–57%, correctly anticipating the re-acceleration of inflation in 2025 (estimated towards 9% in Q4 2025 due to fiscal measures and the deficit).
The CONFIDEX study has been conducted since 2020 by Impetum Group and brings together a community of over 4,500 entrepreneurs and managers from Romania. Launched as a tool for monitoring the COVID crisis, the study has become a benchmark indicator regarding business environment perceptions.
The CONFIDEX Index dropped in the most recent edition from 51.3 to 47.2 points, marking the largest decrease from one edition to another since the study’s launch, and returning to a level comparable to that of the first half of 2021.
(Photo source: press release)
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