Energy minister Bogdan Ivan reversed an earlier position on the possible rise of gas and diesel costs in Romania due to the conflict in Iran and the wider Middle East. During an interview given on Tuesday, March 3, Ivan said that fuels could reach RON 10 per liter if the barrel of oil exceeds USD 110-120, contradicting statements he had made a day earlier.
On Monday, March 2, Ivan said that a price increase of roughly RON 0.03-0.05 per liter of gasoline and diesel is expected in the coming period due to the conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, he ruled out a price of RON 10 per liter.
A day later, the minister said the exact opposite, highlighting that fuel prices depend on the duration of the conflict in the Middle East. “Based on the data we had 2 days ago, this scenario [of fuels reaching RON 10 per liter] was totally unlikely. At the moment, when we look at the figures, if the barrel of oil reaches USD 120, then yes, this risk exists,” the official noted, according to Biziday.
Ivan further specified that the government is readying measures to counter the possible price shock. The energy minister also maintained that Romania can go almost half a year without imports or domestic production due to its 3.2 million tons of fuel reserves.
The market, however, already priced in possible increases. The largest Romanian energy company, OMV Petrom, carried out the first price increase since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran, hiking prices by RON 0.15 per liter for both gasoline and diesel. Lukoil carried out a similar price increase in its gas stations, and other energy companies are likely to do so as well. At the moment, drivers in Bucharest pay around RON 8.4 for diesel and RON 8.06-8.11 for gasoline.
This is the first increase in fuel prices in Romania since Israel and the United States bombed Iran on Saturday, February 28.
At the moment, a barrel of crude oil costs USD 76.4. According to calculations by the Intelligent Energy Association (or AEI), an increase in the price of oil by USD 10 per barrel would lead to a RON 0.70 increase per liter of fuel, while an increase of USD 20 per barrel would lead to a RON 1 per liter increase. A USD 30 increase would lead to a RON 2.5 increase.
“If crude oil stabilizes at USD 90–100 dollars, exceeding the RON 9–10 per liter threshold becomes realistic,” AEI claimed.
In response to the Israel-US bombings, the Iranian theocratic regime announced the closure of the Hormuz Strait, through which 13 million barrels per day passed in 2025, roughly 30% of the global seaborne crude oil flows. The closure is likely to cause higher fuel prices. China, India, Japan, and South Korea are among the biggest importers of oil through the Hormuz Strait, and therefore will be impacted the most. China alone purchases around 80% of Iranian oil, according to CNBC.
(Photo source: Inquam Photos | George Calin)
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