District 4 mayor Daniel Băluță, backed by the governing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is the favorite in the race for the Bucharest City Hall, according to a poll conducted by Avangarde at the beginning of November 2025. The Bucharest mayoral elections will take place on December 7, and all major parties have put forth candidates for the job.
Băluță leads both in voting intention and in the public’s perception of the probable winner of the elections. He is followed by the Liberal (PNL) candidate, Ciprian Ciucu, a few percentage points behind, while the USR candidate, Cătălin Drulă, ranks third.
PSD, PNL, and USR are part of the governing coalition, and the Social Democrats insisted that each party should have its own candidate to block a separate alliance between the latter two.
Around 24% of respondents said they would vote for Daniel Băluță, followed by the National Liberal Party candidate Ciprian Ciucu, with 21%, Cătălin Drulă, candidate of reformist center-right party Save Romania Union, with 20%, and independent candidate supported by far-right party Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), Anca Alexandrescu, with 17%.
Other candidates, such as Vlad Gheorghe, Ana Ciceală, Virgil Alexandru Zidaru, and Liviu Negoiță, scored 5% or under.
Around 88% of respondents have already indicated a candidate, suggesting a relatively consolidated electoral landscape one month before the elections. Asked who they thought would win, respondents indicated a similar hierarchy, but with a larger lead for Băluță.
Approximately 1,080 respondents participated in the survey, which was conducted from November 2 to 7.
An earlier poll gave similar results, but reversed the order between the second and third-placed candidates. The race may be decided by a small percentage of voters, as the elections will not have a second round of voting.
A separate survey by INSCOP Research showed that Romanians with primary education would predominantly vote for the far-right party AUR in a general election, followed by PSD, while college-educated voters would back center-right parties USR and PNL.
Specifically, 51% of people with primary education would choose to vote for AUR if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday. 18% of them would opt for PSD, 9% for PNL, 5% for UDMR, 4% for USR, 3% for another party, 3% for POT, and 3% for SOS Romania. No voting preferences were expressed for the SENS party or for an independent candidate.
Romanians with secondary education declared that they would choose AUR, 21% PSD, 14% PNL, 9% USR, 4% UDMR, 4% POT, 4% SENS, and 2% SOS Romania. Around 1% would choose another party, and 1% an independent candidate.
Finally, 31% of voters with higher education express their preference for USR. 24% of them would vote for PNL, 15% for AUR, 12% for PSD, 6% for SENS, 6% for UDMR, and 2% for POT. 1% support an independent candidate, 1% another party, and 1% SOS Romania.
“The divide is not only political but also axiological, revealing differences in attitudes toward authority, institutions, and the idea of social progress. Practically, education functions as a filter of democratic socialization, producing electorates with fundamentally different expectations and civic behaviors,” stated INSCOP General Director Remus Ștefureac.
(Photo source: Inquam Photos | George Calin)
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