The general government budget deficit in Romania increased by 7% y/y and reached RON 103 billion (EUR 20 billion) in January-September, according to data published by Gandul.ro.
The deficit-to-GDP ratio edged marginally down to 5.42% in the first nine months of 2025, based on the RON 1.9 trillion GDP projected by the state forecasting body for the entire year, from 5.47% in the same period of 2024.
Revenues increased by 12.3% y/y to RON 467 billion (+12.3% y/y), reaching 24.6% of the GDP projected for the entire year, up from 23.6% in the same period of 2024.
Expenditures increased by 11.3% y/y to RON 570 billion (+11.3% y/y), reaching 30.0% of the GDP projected for the entire year, up from 29.1% of GDP in the same period of 2024.
Consequently, the deficit increased nominally by 7% y/y, but the deficit-to-GDP ratio contracted marginally.
Based on the rough data provided by Gandul.ro, Q3 data demonstrate marginal improvement despite the slower nominal increase in revenues. The improvement occurred on the expenditures side, while the first package of budgetary measures was supposed to boost revenues by a higher VAT rate and excise duties. Notably, more granular data is expected to provide information on the effects of the measures implemented in August, while the global data available at this moment may be misleading.
However, the consumption plunged at least in August (September sales data not yet available), and the economy as a whole (investments, industry, trade) may have contracted as a whole amid gloomy expectations in August-September. Industrial output in August confirms such negative sentiment.
The budget revenues increased by 11.4% y/y in Q3, slower than the 12.7% y/y advance in H1, to RON 156.5 billion or 8.24% of GDP from 7.98% in the same period of 2024.
The budget expenditures increased by 9.7% y/y, significantly slower than the 12.1% y/y advance in H1, to RON 189.7 billion or 9.98% of GDP, up from 9.83% of GDP in the same period of 2024.
The budget deficit thus increased by 2.2% y/y nominally to RON 33.2 billion, while the deficit-to-GDP ratio decreased to 1.75% from 1.85%.
Notably, the global budget revenues and expenditures may be subject to transfers from the EU budget and investments financed from such grants – operations that superpose on the organic revenues and expenditures of the national budget that can be revealed only by more granular data. The budget execution data is expected to be released on October 25.
The first budget revision operated by the government envisages a full-year deficit of RON 159 billion, or 8.4% of GDP. This would be some 2 percentage points below the 8.6%-of-GDP deficit of 2024.
iulian@romania-insider.com
(Photo source: Edgars Sermulis/Dreamstime.com)
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