Local analysts question Romania’s 6%-of-GDP 2026 public deficit target

Romanian analysts surveyed by Ziarul Financiar questioned Romania’s 6%-of-GDP public deficit target mentioned by president Nicusor Dan. 

“In practice, a decrease in the deficit by two percentage points of GDP, in such a short time, is impossible,” said economics professor Aurelian Dochia. 

In turn, Adrian Codirlaşu, president of CFA Romania, argued that “a 6% of GDP deficit cannot be reached, but below 7%, yes.” However, this will occur with new taxes and financial repression, Codirlaşu said.

President Dan, speaking in an informal press conference in Timisoara, where he was attending the Timișoara Cities Summit 2025 conference, said “6.5% of GDP, towards 6% of GDP,” and his statement echoed those of the rating agencies and the International Monetary Fund.

“The deficit for 2026 is estimated at 6.5% of GDP and still depends on some measures to lower it to 6%. We are on schedule for this objective, and there is no risk of slippage. And the fact that the rating agencies have confirmed us is proof of what I am saying,” president Dan said, according to Agerpres.

Furthermore, Nicusor Dan’s figures are in line with the estimates of the IMF and rating agencies. 

Credit rating agency Moody’s, which currently affirmed Romania’s sovereign rating just above speculative grade with a negative outlook, expressed confidence in a 6.1% deficit by 2026 but refrained from making forecasts for this year. IMF under Article IV Consultations recently completed in Bucharest had a similar estimate, refraining from any comment on this year’s budget but assuming a 6% of GDP gap in 2026.

Under the 7-year fiscal consolidation plan, Romania is supposed to reach a general government budget deficit of 6.4% of GDP in 2026 (ESA terms). However, this is not the main benchmark used by the EC for evaluating the country’s performance, but the rise of the net primary expenditures, a more complex indicator derived from the general government deficit corrected for more macroeconomic factors.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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