Romania’s isolationist party AUR consolidated its leading position in two polls carried out by Avangarde and CURS, although the scores and the advance versus the primary challenger – the Social Democratic Party (PSD) – differ significantly between the two estimates.
The isolationists’ leading position, still not challenging the combined score of the four parties in the ruling coalition, comes amid public discontent with the government’s activity, understandable given the social impact of the first package of budgetary reform (VAT rate hike, further freezing of pensions and wages) and weak trust in any of the politicians.
AUR would get 41% of the votes under the Avangarde poll and only 34% according to CURS, against 50% respectively 56% combined score of the ruling coalition.
Among the ruling coalition’s parties, PSD stands out with scores of 19% and 23%, respectively. The gap between AUR and PSD is measured at 22% by Avangarde but only 11% by CURS.
The Liberal Party (PNL) remains the third-largest with 13% and 16%, respectively, followed by Save Romania Union (USR) with a score of 12% in both polls – which is a good performance historically. The Hungarian party UDMR is rated at 5%-6% in line with expectations.
Notably, both parties SOS and POT, of isolationist orientation close to AUR, are rated by Avangarde at under 2% each but at a combined 8% by CURS.
The CURS poll indicated that only 64% of those polled expressed an option for a party.
As for the trust in political leaders, no politician manages to gather a majority of support, according to the CURS poll.
Călin Georgescu surprisingly enjoys the highest trust (40%), reflecting the robust core of the electorate disappointed by the mainstream parties, followed closely by AUR’s leader George Simion (38%). President Nicusor Dan is trusted by only 34% of the voters, possibly reflecting the disappointment of part of his supporters with the first steps after the win of the elections.
Among other leaders, Sorin Grindeanu (PSD president) and Ilie Bolojan (prime minister and PNL president) are trusted by 26% of the electorate, while Anamaria Gavrilă (POT), Dominic Fritz (USR), and Diana Șoșoacă (SOS) each have a trust score of 19%.
“The large differences between the scores and the high level of distrust show a fragmented political scene, without a figure who can concentrate public support (over 50%),” the CURS commentary states.
Regarding how institutions in Romania are seen, the CURS survey shows that the best in this regard are the Army and firefighters – 79%, the Church – 70%, and the Police – 56%, the European Union – 55%, the private sector – 52%, and the UN – 50%.
On the opposite side, the political institutions that are not seen well are the Presidency – 40%, the government – 27%, the Constitutional Court – 26%, and the Parliament – 25%.
Asked how they see the government’s measures in the package of measures [legislated in July], 36% of those surveyed said that some decisions were correct, others not, 29% consider them unjustified and unnecessary, and 24% see them as justified and necessary.
When asked if they had directly felt the effects of these measures, 52% said – a very high impact, and 31% – a high impact. Only 9% said the effects were small, while 4% felt very little or not at all, and another 4% could not assess.
When asked “how have they fared financially in the last year,” 46% of respondents said that their situation has worsened (27% “to some extent”, 19% “significantly”). 32% said they remained at the same level, but are not satisfied, while 16% remained at the same level and are satisfied. Only 4% say they have fared better, and 2% did not answer.
“The CURS survey from September 2025 shows a public dominated by pessimism, with high trust in institutions considered stable and protective, but with pronounced scepticism towards politicians and political institutions. In electoral terms, AUR is in first place, followed by PSD and PNL, in an economic context perceived as difficult by the majority of the population,” the CURS statement also states.
iulian@romania-insider.com
(Photo source: Inquam Photos/George Calin)
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