Romania’s retail sales volume index increased by 5.3% y/y in July, partly thanks to positive base effects in the sales of car fuels, and marked a new record in seasonally and workday adjusted terms according to data published by the statistics office INS on September 4.
The outlook remains modest, not that much because of the VAT rate and excise duties hike in July, but mainly ahead of the gloomy economic prospects, including slower household incomes. The wages in the public sector and pensions are expected to remain flat and thus contribute more than a third (1.2% of GDP) of the fiscal 3.35% of GDP consolidation generated by the first reform package, next year.
Overall, the retail sales have remained within a narrow band over the past three quarters since the autumn of 2025, following the stagnation seen in the real wages since March 2024.
The food sales (+1.3% y/y in July) have stagnated for a full year already, while the non-food sales (+5.3% y/y), best reflecting the consumer confidence, kept rising until the autumn of last year, partly encouraged by the lower interest rates.
The sales of car fuels (+11.5% y/y in July) have remained broadly within the same range over the past four years already with temporary ups and downs driven by prices. The double-digit annual growth in July stands partly for unusually low sales in July 2024 but also for a slight upward shift in June and July this year (a combined 3.1% advance).
iulian@romania-insider.com
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