Romania’s trade deficit has contracted by 15% y/y to under EUR 2.4 billion in June after the 8% y/y decline in May, driven by a moderate (+0.6% y/y) rise of imports and a reasonable (+6.3% y/y) rise of exports.
The cautious private and public consumption has visibly impacted imports. But the lower crude oil prices in Q2 this year and the milder winter season, leaving more natural gas reserves, helped, besides cautious private and public demand, the compression seen in the country’s chronic trade gap.
Romania’s exports rose by 6.3% y/y to EUR 8.2 billion in June, bringing the country’s exports in the rolling 12 months to EUR 94.1 billion, 2.4% more compared to the previous 12-month period. It is the steepest rise since late 2023, when the country was grasping the benefits of higher energy prices and abundant trade with grains to and from Ukraine.
Exports of mineral fuels are again contributing to the rebound of Romania’s exports, with a +34% y/y advance announced by the statistics office for the Jan-Jun period (versus a +3.1% y/y overall advance of exports).
Romania’s imports rose by only +0.6% y/y to EUR 10.6 billion in June, bringing the rolling 12-month imports to EUR 129 billion, still a robust +5.3% y/y. In Q2, however, the imports’ annual advance eased to +2.0% y/y after the +8.1% y/y advance in Q1.
The imports of mineral products moderated to an annual rise of +9.1% y/y in Jan-Jun (+4.9% y/y advance of overall imports) from +31% y/y in Q1, suggesting more reserves remained after a mild winter season.
The trade gap in June thus eased for the second consecutive month, to EUR 2.4 billion, bringing the rolling 12-month gap to EUR 35.0 billion (still +13.9% y/y) from EUR 35.7 billion a couple of months earlier.
The improvement in Romania’s external balance is not yet visible in the trade gap to GDP ratio, estimated to remain at 9.9% for the 12-month period to June 2025, at the same level seen in March 2025 – the highest seen seen the expensive energy imports pushed the ratio above 10% during 2022-2023 in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
iulian@romania-insider.com
(Photo source: Andreykuzmin/Dreamstime.com)
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