UniCredit Bank, in a report issued on July 14, projects Romania’s public deficit to reach 8.5% of GDP this year in ESA terms, down from 9.3% in 2024 – a projection rather on the pessimistic side compared to the European Commission’s 8.6%-of-GDP projection without the July 7 fiscal package and the 7.8%-of-GDP forecast issued on July 10 by Moody’s.
Prime minister Ilie Bolojan recently said the government is striving to reach a deficit of “around 8% of GDP” in 2025 – speaking in cash terms (likely to exceed the ESA metric this year).
On the upside, UniCredit trusts Romania will return to the recommended fiscal consolidation trajectory in 2026, when the fiscal deficit will reach 6.4% of GDP.
UniCredit also expects Romania’s public debt to rise sharply to 62.1% of GDP at the end of this year (from 54.8% at the end of 2024) and 66.2% at the end of 2026 – compared to 62.6% expected by Moody’s at the end of 2026.
Romania’s external deficit, measured by the current account gap to GDP ratio, will not improve this year or in 2026, according to the scenario drafted by UniCredit. The ratio would, in fact, widen to 8.6% in 2025 from 8.4% in 2024 to return to 8.4% in 2026 – despite the significant fiscal deficit next year.
In terms of overall economic performance, UniCredit expects a 1.0% GDP advance this year, followed by a slightly stronger (+1.8%) recovery in 2026. The trajectory is underpinned by the private consumption slowing down to +1.8% y/y in 2025 (from +6.0% y/y in 2024) to moderately recover at +2.4% advance in 2026.
Fixed investments, on the upside, are seen as growing by 2.8% this year and 2.9% in 2026 after a volatile performance in the past.
iulian@romania-insider.com
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