The bank expects growth to turn positive, reaching 1.5% y/y in Q4 2026 and 1.8% y/y in Q1 2027, before accelerating to 2.5% y/y in Q2. The growth rate is expected to have remained in the negative area during Q3, with the flash data expected on November 13.
The latest forecast from Romania’s National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP) pointed to a 0.4% economic contraction this year, followed by 1.7% growth in 2027.
Regarding inflation, ING expects the annual rate to fall to 4.7% in 2027, from 8.5% in 2026, with the downward trend continuing in 2028, when inflation is forecast to reach 3.5%, Ziarul Financiar reported.
On a quarterly basis, inflation is expected to ease from 7.0% y/y in Q3 to 6.6% in Q4 2026, followed by 6% in Q1 2027 and 5% in Q2.
ING analysts expect Central and Eastern European economies to remain resilient despite the latest energy shock, with domestic demand and strong labour markets helping to cushion the impact on growth. Higher energy costs are expected to temporarily interrupt disinflation, with headline inflation likely to peak in Q1 2027 before gradually easing.
Romania and Hungary are expected to continue monetary easing, although the timing will depend on geopolitical developments, energy prices and currency stability.
Globally, ING forecasted US economic growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. The euro area is expected to grow by 1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, supported by fiscal stimulus in Germany and investment in AI, which should offset weak consumption and investment, as well as by a gradual decline in energy prices.
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