Romania is entering a week with several important economic releases, which will provide clues about the evolution of the economy after fiscal adjustment measures.
Preliminary data on Q3 GDP (November 13), October inflation (November 12) and industrial production (November 13) are expected this week, while the National Bank of Romania (BNR) is expected to keep the key interest rate at 6.5% at its board meeting on November 12.
Erste Group Research analysts estimate that gross domestic product (GDP) could record a slight decrease in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, as fiscal consolidation continues to affect domestic demand, as reported by Economedia.ro.
Romania’s economy contracted by 0.4% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, narrowing from a 1.2% decline in the first quarter, with GDP down 0.7% in the first half of the year. Under the Eurostat methodology, based on chain-linked volumes, GDP contracted by 1.9% year on year in Q2, following a 1.4% decline in Q1.
In seasonally adjusted terms, however, economic activity remained broadly unchanged in both quarters. GDP fell 1.6% year on year in H1 under the Eurostat methodology.
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