US bank Goldman Sachs argues Romania’s economy would benefit from currency depreciation

“Romania’s position suggests that the unsustainable current account deficit is a bigger problem than [its second major macroeconomic challenge], the negative output gap,” the report said, as quoted by Cursdeguvernare.ro.

Under these circumstances, the adjustment should combine a weakening of the real effective exchange rate, “possibly through a larger one-off devaluation,” with a more restrictive fiscal policy.

According to Goldman Sachs’ analysis, Romania is also the economy that deviates the most from the equilibrium zone in the direction of a REER that is too high – a sign that the leu is still overvalued in real terms.

The real effective exchange rate index (REER – which takes inflation into account) calculated by CFA Romania reached 122.2 in January 2026, the highest level since the series began in 1994, and stood at 118.7 in July – about 19% above the average for the period 2010–2019. Over the same period, the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) changed very little (101.5 in July 2026).