Romania’s trade gap narrows by 4.5% y/y to 8.4% of GDP in 12 months to August

Trade flows gained momentum partly due to base effects, with exports increasing by 11.6% y/y to EUR 7.55 billion and imports by 13.7% to EUR 10.69 billion.

However, over the 12 months to August, the rolling trade deficit narrowed by 4.5% y/y to EUR 33.17 billion.

The deficit-to-GDP ratio also improved, falling to an estimated 8.4% over the 12 months to August, from 9.4% a year earlier.

The nominal trade deficit offers no clear indication of a sustained improvement, having widened again in recent months amid high energy prices. By contrast, the deficit-to-GDP ratio has stabilised at around 8.4% since March.

Slight currency depreciation, subdued private consumption and weak economic activity could further improve the ratio. However, progress towards a stronger external balance is likely to remain limited without structural changes in the composition of economic activity.