Unlike his predecessors, Niculescu’s designation has not immediately polarised the centrist parties that could potentially form his parliamentary majority. However, moving from the first reaction to sufficient parliamentary support may prove complicated.
The designation of an independent candidate may indicate that no parliamentary majority emerged among the centrist parties during consultations.
“I chose the person who has the best chance of forming a majority,” president Dan said when introducing Niculescu, exactly five months after the successful no-confidence motion against the government of prime minister Ilie Bolojan and after three failed attempts to form a new government.
“Mr Niculescu has the freedom to decide, after in-depth discussions with the parties, the formula of government – political or technocratic. What is important is the majority in Parliament,” Dan said.
The president said he was confident that a government headed by Niculescu would preserve Romania’s pro-Western orientation while respecting the country’s fiscal targets and international commitments.
Besides ticking the pro-Western commitment box, in line with the stated position of all parliamentary parties, including the eurosceptic, nationalist and far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), Niculescu promised “careful use of public money, predictable economic policies, compliance with Romania’s commitments, acceleration of investments and reforms, and a state that serves as well as possible all of its citizens”.
A diplomat by profession but a journalist by education, Niculescu spent roughly two-thirds of his professional career in the media before moving into diplomacy. He has no formal background in economic or financial policy, although his role as coordinator of Romania’s OECD accession process has given him extensive contacts across government institutions. He may therefore serve as an interface for a political construction that would project its own policies – whether driven by the Presidency, a parliamentary majority or a combination of the two.
Niculescu has never been a member of a political party. But first, he must secure lawmakers’ support within ten days, with both the composition of his government and the political strategy behind it remaining largely unpredictable.
Niculescu’s career, which began as an intern at a radio station while a student and later took him to the head of the Romanian subsidiary of RFI and to correspondent positions for French media, reached a new level when president Klaus Iohannis appointed him Romania’s ambassador to France at the end of 2015.
The ministers picked by Niculescu will define his government’s orientation
The team of ministers that Niculescu proposes will be crucial in determining both the orientation of his government and its chances of securing a parliamentary majority.
With no political party behind him, and no obvious possibility of being adopted by one party without antagonising others, Niculescu faces the difficult task of defining a governing strategy within a very short period.
His OECD work has probably given him contacts within most ministries, but not necessarily the political leverage or economic-policy profile needed to reconcile the competing demands of the parliamentary parties.
Social Democrats remained reluctant and raised the early-elections scenario
The Social Democratic Party (PSD) appeared disappointed by the nomination, with party leader Sorin Grindeanu saying that president Dan “continues to defy parliamentary mathematics”. He implied that Niculescu could represent the centre-right bloc rather than the party holding the largest number of seats in Parliament.
“It is the president’s choice. The Social Democratic Party makes its own decisions. Therefore, tomorrow [October 6] we will have a meeting of the National Permanent Bureau in which we will analyse this proposal,” Grindeanu wrote on Facebook on Monday evening.
Earlier on Monday, during consultations with president Dan, Grindeanu had put himself forward for the prime minister position. The majority he appeared to envisage, however, included AUR, breaching Dan’s condition against bringing the far-right party into the governing majority.
Grindeanu also reiterated PSD’s intention to change the economic policies implemented in Romania over the past year, putting the party at odds with the centre-right PNL-USR-UDMR bloc. He linked PSD’s support for Niculescu to the latter’s economic policy and raised the prospect of early elections if the new candidate continues the policies of the Bolojan government.
“If the designated prime minister continues to support Bolojan’s austerity policies, I believe that there is no other way to put Romania back on the right track than to go to early elections,” Grindeanu said.
PNL and USR expressed openness but no unconditional support
The National Liberal Party (PNL) said it “takes note” of president Dan’s decision to nominate Niculescu and will discuss the government programme, its priorities and the proposed ministerial team before deciding whether to support the investiture.
“Following discussions and analysis of the government programme, the PNL will make a decision regarding the investiture vote,” party spokesman Ionel Bogdan said.
Earlier on Monday, PNL leader Ilie Bolojan said the party would remain in opposition if PSD were part of the government, but left the door open to supporting a government at the investiture vote.
“Being aware of the political deadlock, after the president makes the nomination, we will discuss seriously and see what the possibilities are to avoid prolonging the political deadlock,” Bolojan said.
PNL had previously signalled that it was prepared to consider several options, including an alternative government or early elections.
The Save Romania Union (USR) will similarly analyse Niculescu’s programme, ministerial team and the parliamentary majority supporting him, party leader Dominic Fritz said.
At the same time, Fritz reiterated that USR would not support a government containing PSD ministers or controlled by PSD.
UDMR offered the clearest opening – but it is the smallest of the centrist parties too
The Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) appeared to offer Niculescu the clearest opening for parliamentary support, although it also wants to see how a majority can be assembled and what government programme he proposes.
UDMR lawmakers could vote for Niculescu as prime minister, the party’s parliamentary leader Csoma Botond said. The party’s only “red line” is that it will not negotiate with AUR or SOS Romania to form a majority.
“We can vote for Mr Luca Niculescu. Let’s see how this majority can be formed and let’s see what government programme Mr Luca Niculescu would propose,” Csoma said. “If we can avoid getting into this situation, we could certainly vote for a government led by Luca Niculescu.”
The UDMR position leaves open the possibility of reviving a broader centre-right coalition, but such a formula would still need to attract PSD support or sufficient individual lawmakers from outside the four-party bloc. The previous PNL-USR-UDMR government proposal led by Siegfried Mureșan secured only 182 votes in Parliament, well below the 233 needed for investiture.
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