The decline was driven mainly by the expectations component, which plunged 7.2 points to 40.2 points, while the current conditions component remained steady at 36.9 points.
“Participants anticipate the continuation of the stagflationary situation, with high inflation combined with economic stagnation,” said Adrian Codîrlașu, president of the CFA Society Romania.
In July, the CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased by 6.7 points to 44.2 points, amid the confirmation of Romania’s investment-grade rating by the rating agencies.
The average forecast for the state budget deficit in 2026 fell by 0.2 percentage points from the previous year to 5.8% of GDP. Economic growth expectations for 2026 remained close to zero, at 0.1%, with some respondents also expecting a recession, according to CFA Society Romania.
At the same time, public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 63% over the next 12 months.
“Against the backdrop of the war in Iran, a question was also introduced regarding expectations for the Brent oil price over the next 12 months. According to the responses, participants expect an average price of USD 87 per barrel. However, uncertainty remains high,” the statement reads.
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