The most severe scenario presented by the latest edition of PNRR Monitor compiled by an independent platform supported by Save Romania Union (USR) regards the failure of two or more key reforms, along with the failure to complete major investments. Under this scenario, the estimated losses exceed EUR 2.5 billion out of a total of EUR 20 billion in funding (EUR 13.5 billion in grants), and among the projects that could lose funding are large investments in hospitals and schools.
With EUR 7.57 billion theoretically remaining to be collected (net of prefinancing EUR 4.3 billion in grants and EUR 3.3 billion in loans), the end of the PNRR depends mainly on two variables: the speed with which Parliament adopts the outstanding reforms and the rate of reception of projects on the ground.
Under the optimistic scenario presented by Monitor PNRR, Romania manages to quickly adopt legislative reforms and complete projects, and losses are limited to tens of millions of euros, mainly from small endowments that are not completed on time at the local level.
It is the scenario in which the administration manages to use almost the entire remaining time window.
Moderate scenario. The situation changes radically if one of the major political reforms is not adopted on time.
In the moderate scenario, the bulletin estimates losses of EUR 1-2 billion, given that a major reform, such as the Unitary Wage Law, is not implemented, and the problems overlap with infrastructure projects that are not completed.
This is where one of the main vulnerabilities of the final PNRR appears: the money no longer depends only on the construction sites and the ability of the beneficiaries to complete the works, but also on legislative decisions that must be adopted in an extremely short period of time.
The difference between the three scenarios shows the size of the stakes for Romania: in the last two weeks, each reform adopted and each project received can have a direct effect on the volume of European money that actually reaches the economy.
The list of projects to be completed is quite exhaustive.
The last days of the PNRR are putting pressure on projects from several sectors of the economy.
In the railway infrastructure, the list includes “Quick Wins” type works on 1,527.85 kilometres of infrastructure, as well as modernisation projects on the Arad-Timişoara-Caransebeş route and on the Cluj-Episcopia Bihor section. The value of the modernisation works is EUR 718.01 million.
The rolling stock includes 36 modernised electric locomotives and 64 rehabilitated wagons. In the road infrastructure, the stakes include the A7 Focsani-Bacău and Bacău-Paşcani highways, with 95.9 kilometres.
Health, among the areas with long-term investments
The healthcare sector appears with several important investments in the list of projects that need to be certified and completed.
Among these are the “Agrippa Ionescu” Hospital in Baloteşti, the Bistriţa County Emergency Hospital and the Cluj County Emergency Clinical Hospital, a total of three hospital units financed through grants under Payment Request 6.
The list also includes two new polytrauma pavilions, in Craiova and Sibiu, as well as 200 new type C ambulances.
Another component targets neonatal intensive care and beds for critical patients: 25 units and 65 beds.
These investments are relevant not only due to the value of the financing, but also because they represent projects in the medical infrastructure that must be transformed from contracts and works into effectively functional capacities.
Nurseries, energy, water and forests: other investments on the last straight line
In education, the investment picture indicates 110 nurseries built and fully equipped, of which 80 were financed through grants and 30 through loans.
In energy, the objective is represented by 950 MW of new wind and solar capacities connected to the grid.
In the environment and water sector, 288 kilometres of water distribution networks and 975 kilometres of sewage networks are planned.
At the same time, the forest component targets 18,000 hectares of new forested areas and 130,000 square meters of urban forests.
iulian@romania-insider.com
(Photo source: Ruletkka/Dreamstime.com)
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