Romania\u2019s public debt increased by RON 174.4 billion, or 18.1% y\/y, to RON 1.138 billion (EUR 223.3 billion, 59.6% of GDP) at the end of December 2025, according to data published by the Finance Ministry.<\/p>\n
Although remaining under the 60% threshold, the debt-to-GDP ratio marked a significant 4.8 percentage points 9pp) advance \u2013 not as steep as the 5.9pp advance marked in 2024 but still a big concern for the country\u2019s indebtedness profile. The slightly milder deterioration marked in 2025 was due to a narrower budget deficit (7.65% of GDP compared to 8.65% in 2024), visible in the comparatively smaller advance of the public debt: EUR 34.2 billion in 2025 compared to EUR 36.1 billion in 2024. The leap marked by Romania\u2019s public debt remains massive in absolute terms, however.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The deterioration of the debt-to-GDP ratio, although steep, was somehow sweetened during 2024 and 2025 by the nominal GDP expansion (+8.5% y\/y in 2025 after +9.7% y\/y in 2024). This dilution effect, already weaker in 2025, is likely to further dissipate in 2026 unless the oil price shock has a significant permanent component that generates a significant inflationary shock.<\/p>\n
The fiscal consolidation this year, when the cash budget deficit should drop under 6.5% of GDP, and later in 2027, should generate a smaller nominal advance of the country\u2019s public debt and an even smaller deterioration of the indebtedness ratio.<\/p>\n
In its latest review of Romania\u2019s sovereign rating, international agency Moody\u2019s assuming the deficit declines to 6.3% of GDP this year and 5.7% of GDPin 2027 (under ESA terms), estimated Romania\u2019s government debt will increase to only 62.9% of GDP by that time, up from 60.5% estimated at that time for the end of 2025 (actual smaller indebtedness at the end of 2025 should bring down the end-2027 projection lower). Debt is expected to continue rising gradually before stabilising at around 65% of GDP toward the end of the decade, the rating agency says, describing rather the optimal consolidation trajectory that the country should follow.<\/p>\n
In 2025, the maturity profile of Romania\u2019s public debt has improved slightly, with the share of the short-term debt decreasing to 6.9% of total at the end of December, from 8.3% one year earlier.\u00a0<\/p>\n
By the nature of the instrument, the share held by loans (versus bonds and bills) increased to 18.0% of total, from 16.4% at the end of 2024, as the Treasury relied to a larger extent on private placements intermediated by major US banks. This generated a slight increase in the share of foreign-denominated public debt, to 52.8% of the total at the end of 2025 from 51.5% at the end of 2024 (the advancement of foreign debt\u2019s share was magnified by the local currency\u2019s depreciation, which made the foreign-denominated debt larger when expressed in local currency).<\/p>\n
A small part of the increase in the public debt expressed in local currency (+18.1% y\/y) in 2025 was caused by the local currency\u2019s nominal depreciation (2.5% y\/y measured at the end of December 2025) that magnified the size of the foreign denominated debt, just over half of the total public debt that increased by 21.4% y\/y to RON 595.9 billion at the end of December although when expressed in euros it advanced to EUR 115.9 billion, by only 18.4% y\/y. At the same time, the public debt denominated in local currency increased by 15.1% y\/y to RON 517.3 billion at the end of 2025.<\/p>\n