The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has reduced the forecast for the Romanian economy in 2026 to 1.2% growth, compared to 1.6% envisaged in September, under the Regional Economic Prospects report published on February 26. The country\u2019s economy would accelerate to 2.2% in 2027, according to the bank\u2019s scenario.<\/p>\n
The gloomy 2026-2027 forecast for Romania came amid a 0.2 percentage-point upward revision by the EBRD to the overall forecast for the economies it operates in, to 3.6% in 2026 and accelerating to 3.7% in 2027.<\/p>\n
The gradual acceleration from a modest growth in 2025 (estimated by the EBRD at 0.9%, but probably smaller if the 0.6% flash estimate is confirmed) is supported by a projected peak in the absorption of European funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and an improvement in the trade balance, according to the EBRD. Weak external demand is a significant source of downside risk, the bank warned.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Fiscal consolidation and the restrictive monetary policy aimed at addressing the inflation peak are two sources of growth moderation mentioned by the EBRD.<\/p>\n
The fiscal deficit is estimated to have narrowed from 9.3% of GDP to around 8% in 2025 and is expected to decrease to 6.2 of GDP in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The VAT increase and energy prices pushed annual inflation to a year-end peak of 9.7%, the highest in the EU. The National Bank of Romania maintained its restrictive policy rate to combat persistent inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n