Austria\u2019s Erste Group has maintained its forecast for Romania\u2019s economic growth at 1.3% in 2025, a scenario considered highly likely and consistent with a mild technical recession episode in H2, followed by growth of around 2.1% in 2026. However, Erste\u2019s analysts warned that downside risks are mounting, particularly if consumer sentiment fails to improve over the course of the year.<\/p>\n
Consumer confidence in Romania fell sharply in January to -34.6, from -30.9 previously, reaching its lowest level since 2010\u20132011 and falling below the lows recorded during the pandemic.<\/p>\n
According to Erste, sentiment deteriorated across all major components, including expectations regarding future personal finances, the broader economic outlook, major purchasing intentions, and assessments of past financial conditions.<\/p>\n
\u201cConsumers remain likely overly pessimistic due to the lingering effects of fiscal consolidation measures and persistently high inflation,\u201d Erste analysts noted.<\/p>\n
In the industrial sector, manufacturing confidence edged down slightly to -2.1 in January from -2.0 in December, mainly driven by lower expectations for production. Capacity utilisation in manufacturing increased marginally in Q1 2026 to 69.9%, from 68.5% previously, but remains well below its long-term historical average.<\/p>\n
Services sentiment also weakened, slipping to -1.1 in January from -0.2 in December. Managers reported a poorer assessment of past business conditions, slightly weaker recent demand, and softer expectations for future demand.<\/p>\n