The average net wage in Romania, expressed in real terms, plunged by 7.2% in July-August when the consumer prices jumped by 4.8% and then recovered by 2.9% in September-November after the consumer prices stabilised (rose by only +1.3%), according to data published by the statistics office INS on January 16. Overall, the real average wage in Romania was, as of November, 4.5% lower than in June \u2013 before the price shock prompted by the electricity price liberalisation and the VAT rate hike \u2013 and was slightly rising.<\/p>\n
The subsequent household income correction was visible in the volume of retail sales, which contracted by 3%-4% compared to the period before the price shock in July-August.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In principle, such demand-side factors should facilitate disinflation during the coming quarters. From nearly 10%, the headline inflation is expected to drop sharply in July-August on base effects and reach 3.7% y\/y at the end of the year (according to the central bank\u2019s projection).<\/p>\n
The wage correction bore a painful social impact, but it restored the macroeconomic balance: the wage share, specifically the share of GDP distributed as gross wages, gradually dropped to 37.4% in Q3 after it peaked to 41% in Q4, 2024 \u2013 significantly above the 35%-37.5% range seen over the previous years.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The state forecasting body CNP expects, under the Winter Forecast, the average wage to contract by another 0.9% y\/y in 2026 (real terms), after the plunge estimated at 1.1% y\/y in 2025. The wage share, indicating, among others, the competitiveness of the Romanian economy, will consequently further improve.<\/p>\n
Under a broader perspective, the real wage in Romania dropped as of November 2025 to the levels seen in late 2003 – early 2024, before the populist measures taken by the government in 2024 during an intense electoral year. More precisely, the net average wage increased by 2.4% over the past two years to November 2025. It is still an improvement \u2013 yet not equally shared across sectors.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The wages in the budgetary sector performed generally below average (except for healthcare), where the wages rose by 2.8% in real terms. In manufacturing, the real advance was 2.1%. But the low wages in HoReCa rose by a real 13%, while those in the water transport sector plunged by 33% y\/y on a high base generated by transit of merchandise to and from Ukraine.\u00a0<\/p>\n