Romania\u2019s statistics office revised slightly upward the Q3 GDP growth rate from 1.6% y\/y to 1.7% y\/y under the national methodology and from 1.2% y\/y to 1.3% y\/y under the Eurostat methodology, which maintains the consensus expectations for an overall economic growth of just under 1% for the entire year 2025. For the first three quarters, the growth rate was 0.9% y\/y under the national methodology and 1.5% y\/y under the Eurostat calculation.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The revised data confirmed the key roles played by construction and agriculture for the Q3 economic expansion and the positive contribution made by industry.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The statistics office revised the households\u2019 consumption from 0.8% y\/y to 1.4% y\/y while revising the investments (gross fixed capital formation) from +8.3% y\/y to +5.0% y\/y, in Q3.<\/p>\n
Depending on the economic performance in Q4, Romania\u2019s overall 2025 GDP growth will end up above 1% y\/y (rather unlikely) or just under 1% y\/y (more likely). After the 0.2% q\/q decline in Q3, the analysts expect further economic contraction in Q4 amid the prolonged impact of the restrictive budgetary measures, which would define \u201ctechnical recession.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
For steady q\/q economic growth in Q4 (seasonally adjusted terms), Romania\u2019s economy would end up with 1.3% y\/y growth in 2025. A major 2% q\/q decline would result in 0.8% y\/y growth.\u00a0<\/p>\n
More importantly, however, is whether the economy will recover to stronger growth in 2026. The absorption of EU funds under the Resilience facility and Cohesion Fund will play a key role in this year\u2019s economic growth. Disbursements under both schemes are expected by the government at up to EUR 15 billion, compared to a GDP that reached EUR 370 billion in four quarters to September 2025 and will be near EUR 400 billion in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Prolonged impact of the fiscal austerity, expected to diminish this year, remains the main concern for the country\u2019s economic recovery.<\/p>\n