{"id":7722,"date":"2025-11-14T14:00:26","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T14:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ofero.news\/?p=7722"},"modified":"2025-11-14T14:00:26","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T14:00:26","slug":"romanian-national-bank-revises-end-2025-inflation-forecast-upwards-to-9-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ofero.news\/?p=7722","title":{"rendered":"Romanian National Bank revises end-2025 inflation forecast upwards to 9.6%"},"content":{"rendered":"

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) revised its inflation forecast upward, from 8.8% to 9.6%, for the end of 2025. The institution anticipates that inflation will reach 3.7% at the end of 2026, compared to 3% in the previous forecast, according to data presented on Friday, November 14, by governor Mugur Is\u0103rescu<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Compared to the previous inflation report, BNR noted a significantly higher inflation curve due to the liberalization of the electricity market and the increase of indirect taxes in the third quarter, especially on electricity. The removal of electricity price caps increased inflation by 2.3%, more than the impact of the VAT increase.<\/p>\n

Almost half of inflation is determined by indirect taxes, VAT and excises, electricity, and natural gas, the report shows.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is a politically and socially quite tense environment in the country at this time, and of course all these discussions push price increases higher than we anticipated in the summer months,\u201d said Mugur Is\u0103rescu at the presentation conference of the Quarterly Inflation Report.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, \u201cthe annual inflation rate calculated based on the consumer price index has a quasi-continuous downward trajectory with a broad adjustment in the third quarter next year,\u201d the governor added.<\/p>\n

According to the BNR, re-entry into the target range is expected in the first quarter of 2027.<\/p>\n

Mugur Is\u0103rescu also commented on the economic decline noted in the second quarter.<\/p>\n

\u201cI hope we avoid a recession; it is not easy when trying to exit a procyclical policy. I am speaking from hope and from my own experience. I do not believe we will have two quarters of negative growth, which would define a recession. But even in this scenario, if we have a negative fourth quarter, for the entire year we will still have growth of around 1%,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Regarding the exchange rate, the BNR governor said that the euro will not fall below RON 5 but that the exchange market is stable.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Finally, Mugur Is\u0103rescu praised the current government\u2019s handling of the public deficit crisis and said he does not believe VAT will be increased.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is a regressive tax, which would heavily affect poorer layers. In just three months of implementing the program, the direction is actually good compared to the real data. People look at what had been reported, but the reports were not entirely solid. They were based on a budgetary program that was slightly removed from reality,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The annual inflation rate<\/a> in Romania in October 2025 was 9.8%, with non-food goods increasing in price by 10.96%, services by 10.52%, and food goods by 7.57%, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS) published on Wednesday, November 12.<\/p>\n

Earlier this week, the Central Bank decided to keep the monetary policy rate<\/a> at 6.5%, anticipating a widening aggregate demand deficit with an impact on the disinflation trajectory, particularly after the end of September 2026, when the transitory inflation episode subsides.<\/p>\n

radu@romania-insider.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

(Photo source: Inquam Photos | Octav Ganea)<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) revised its inflation forecast upward, from 8.8% to 9.6%, for the end of 2025. The institution anticipates that inflation will reach 3.7% at the end of 2026, compared to 3% in the previous forecast, according to data presented on Friday, November 14, by governor Mugur Is\u0103rescu. Compared to the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ofero.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7722","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ofero.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ofero.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ofero.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7722"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ofero.news\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7722\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ofero.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7722"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ofero.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7722"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ofero.news\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7722"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}