Romania\u2019s industrial output volume index contracted by 3.3% y\/y in August, after it boosted positive annual growth rates over the previous three months, according to data published by the statistics office INS. The negative annual growth rate came as a surprise, after the outlook for the country\u2019s industry seemed to have improved over the past half a year.<\/p>\n
The seasonally-adjusted production index dropped by 2.1% m\/m, marking a new post-COVID record low after four consecutive months of decline.<\/p>\n
The industrial output in 12 months to August dropped by 1.2% y\/y compared to the previous 12-month period.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The weak reading in August reversed the positive trend established over the rolling 12 months to a negative annual growth rate of -5.3%, from a positive growth rate calculated a month earlier over the 12 months to July 2025.\u00a0<\/strong>This witnesses the volatile conditions of the industrial activity facing a multitude of uncertainties.<\/p>\n The decline in the core manufacturing industries was steeper than average, -4.0% y\/y on an annual basis and -2.7% m\/m in seasonally and workday adjusted terms. The 12-month trend rate is not much different, however: -5.4% y\/y.<\/p>\n The output in the \u201cmanufacturing of transport means\u201d category, which includes the important automobile sector, dropped by 16% y\/y in August and by some 5% y\/y in the 12 months to August compared to the previous 12-month period.<\/p>\n The negative output in August took analysts by surprise by its amplitude, in the context of Romania\u2019s PMI reaching the 15-month high and reaching the neutral benchmark in September (49.8 points) after a gradual improvement over the past half a year. The further improvement in the PMI in September seemed supportive of a positive trend in the country\u2019s industrial sector, which has undergone a negative trend since the war began in Ukraine.<\/p>\n Erste Group expected a 0.5% m\/m decline and a positive 0.5% y\/y growth rate for August, according to the group\u2019s research note.\u00a0<\/p>\n Manufacturing confidence from the ESI survey improved to -1.5 in September from -1.8 in August, the financial group argued. This was, however, mainly driven by the expectation component, with some incremental positive contribution from lower inventories, while the order book level decreased.\u00a0<\/p>\n In contrast, external confidence indicators were on a downward trend in September. The manufacturing component of the Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany marginally decreased for the second month in a row.<\/p>\n