The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its estimates for the growth of the Romanian economy this year, to 1% from 1.6% as forecast in April and 3.3% as the advance indicated in October last year, according to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report published on October 14. The forecast compares positively to the 0.6% official projection of the state forecasting body, CNP.<\/p>\n
For the coming years, the IMF expects gradual economic consolidation with the growth rate reaching 3.3% in 2030.<\/p>\n
On the fiscal consolidation side, however, the Fund expects Romania’s general government budget to drop below 6% of GDP in 2026 from 8.2% in 2024, mainly due to lower expenditures. However, it does not expect much improvement over the next three years until 2029, when the gap would still reach 5.5%.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The public deficit would remain two percentage points above the 3% target in 2030.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The gross public debt is expected to reach 70% of GDP in 2030, following slower than planned fiscal consolidation and moderate growth.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The international financial institution is also more pessimistic about Romania’s progress in reducing its current account deficit, which, according to the latest estimates, will only shrink to 8% of GDP this year, compared to a decline to 7.6% of GDP forecast in the spring.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In contrast, the IMF is more optimistic about the situation next year, when Romania’s current account deficit is expected to shrink to 6.6% of GDP, a significantly better performance than a deficit of 7.4% of GDP forecast in April. Romania’s CA gap would further narrow to 5% of GDP in 2030.<\/p>\n