The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced its forecast for Romania’s economic growth in its September issue of the Regional Economic Prospects report, by 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, to 0.9% this year and 1.6% in 2026.<\/p>\n
Romania’s government will base its revised 2025 budget planning on expectations of 0.6% economic growth and an equally cautious forecast for 1.2% growth next year.<\/p>\n
Romania’s economic growth significantly slowed down in 2024, to 0.8%, dragged down by industry, services, and construction, but above all by agriculture, which was heavily affected by drought.<\/p>\n
During the first half of 2025, growth averaged 1.4% y\/y, the EBRD says, amid slowing real wage growth (still +3.4% y\/y in real terms), a deteriorating external balance (CA deficit widened by 26% y\/y), and a contraction in industry (-2% y\/y).<\/p>\n
Growth is projected at 0.9% in 2025, picking up to 1.6% in 2026 on accelerating absorption of EU funds. Downside risks are linked to weaker exports and public investment cuts.<\/p>\n