Romania\u2019s Q2 GDP is expected to show a mild contraction of -0.1% q\/q and -1.8% y\/y in Q2, due to weak confidence and base effects, Erste Group says in a research note.\u00a0Romania\u2019s statistics office will announce flash Q2 GDP data on Thursday, August 14.<\/p>\n
The 1.8% y\/y decline expected by Erste for the country\u2019s economy in Q2 would be the first annual decline in several years.<\/p>\n
By our calculation, a 0.1% q\/q GDP decline in Q2 would still result in a 0.25% y\/y advance for the seasonally and workday adjusted GDP.<\/p>\n
Consequently, Erste\u2019s expectations for a 1.8% y\/y contraction refer to the unadjusted real GDP, which has not seen annual contraction rates since the coronavirus pandemic period.<\/p>\n
Erste Group revised its 2025 forecast for Romania in June to +1.3% from 1.8% previously. But the analysts\u2019 expectations have further depressed in the meantime.\u00a0<\/p>\n
ING projected recently only a 0.3% economic advance for this year in Romania.<\/p>\n