Following the publication of the detailed Q1 GDP figures (+0.3% y\/y), ING Bank Romania revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Romania to 0.8% from 1.2% on June 6, reflecting weak momentum and growing downside risks. The bank maintains its 2026 estimate at 2.2%.<\/p>\n
The publication of Romania’s detailed GDP data for the first quarter of 2025 confirms a fragile growth structure, the bank’s research report reads.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The economy was flat on a quarterly basis and expanded by only 0.3% compared to the first quarter of 2024. Private consumption remained the main growth engine alongside investments, but net exports have offset nearly all those gains.<\/p>\n
On the supply side, industry was a major drag, while construction and net taxes offered some support. Services and agriculture were broadly neutral.<\/p>\n
Looking ahead, the bank sees the outlook clouded by the upcoming fiscal consolidation package.\u00a0New tax measures are likely to weigh on consumption and private investments.\u00a0<\/p>\n
At the same time, the liberalisation of electricity prices from July 2025 could trigger a sharp rise in energy costs. Early signals point to a solid double-digit price increase in electricity prices, which could push inflation towards the 6.0% area in the second half of 2025.<\/p>\n