Romania\u2019s industrial production contracted by 2.5% y\/y in January, with a slightly milder decline of 2.3% y\/y in the core manufacturing industries, the statistics office INS announced.<\/p>\n
However, there are positive signs: the workday-adjusted industrial output increased by 2.1% y\/y (reflecting the smaller workday count in January 2025 compared to 2024)\u00a0and\u00a0the seasonally- and workday-adjusted industrial production index (+2.5% m\/m) remained on a positive path consolidated during H2 last year.<\/p>\n
The industrial output in the 12 months to January dropped by 1.4% y\/y, further sweetening its negative performance from -1.6% y\/y calculated for the 12 months to December.<\/p>\n
Romania\u2019s January industrial figures come as no surprise\u00a0<\/strong>after the 1.6% decline in 2024 and 3.0% y\/y contraction in 2023, while a negative outlook is supported by analysts\u2019 expectations measured in recent surveys.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Manufacturing PMI remained in February in the \u201cnegative\u201d (under 50-point benchmark) for the eighth consecutive month\u00a0and\u00a0the expectations component of the CFA confidence index improved by only 1.7 points m\/m at the end of January and remained at a very low level of 32.5 points deep in the \u201cnegative\u201d outlook region.<\/p>\n However, analysts of Austrian group Erste have positive anticipations and see a return to growth for industrial production this year, forecasting a +1.1% increase. The positive expectations are pinpointed by rather recent developments in Europe: \u201csignificant investments in EU security along with large fiscal stimulus planned in Germany.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cDomestic and external confidence indicators appear to be rebounding from record lows\u00a0and\u00a0new orders for manufacturing are gaining speed gradually,\u201d according to Erste Research.\u00a0<\/p>\n Indeed, HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a two-year high at 47.6 in February as contractions in output and new orders eased.<\/p>\n In Romania, the main industries saw diverging performances in the first month of 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n In January, the output in road vehicle manufacturing plunged by 12% y\/y, and textile and clothing manufacturing fell by 25% y\/y and 21% y\/y, respectively, while several other sectors saw milder contraction rates.<\/p>\n However, other industries started the year on the right foot: food manufacturing expanded by 3.8% y\/y, and\u00a0manufacturing of non-metallic mineral products (construction materials, such as cement, adhesives, or glass) surged by 11.2% y\/y. Manufacturing of metal structures also saw an encouraging 5.0% y\/y dynamics.<\/p>\n