Romania\u2019s statistics office INS revised Q2 GDP upwards by 3% to RON 421 bln (EUR 84.6 bln) under the second preliminary estimate. It improved only marginally the annual growth rate for the quarter, from 0.8% y\/y to 0.9% y\/y.<\/p>\n
Consequently, the growth rate for the entire H1 was maintained at 0.7% (+1.4% y\/y if adjusted for the number of workdays).<\/p>\n
The GDP deflator for the quarter was revised upwards from 8.5% y\/y to 11.6% y\/y, which explains most of the 3.0% upward revision of the nominal GDP.<\/p>\n
Higher nominal GDP bodes well for the deficit ratios, and the government is currently striving to meet the 6.9%-of-GDP target. A 3% larger nominal GDP for the entire year, compared to the initial projection, would allow a supplementary deficit of 0.2% of GDP.<\/p>\n
There were no major changes in the structure of the GDP dynamics for Q2.<\/p>\n
The revised seasonal adjustment slightly changed the real GDP trajectory, showing that Romania\u2019s economy peaked in Q4 last year to recover slightly (+0.3% q\/q, revised from +0.1% q\/q) in Q2 this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The high base effects created by the comparatively stronger economic activity in H2 last year put a question mark on the expected economic recovery in the second part of this year above the level of 1% (after 0.7% y\/y in H1).<\/p>\n