Romania\u2019s general government debt increased by RON 22.5 billion (EUR 4.3 billion) in May to RON 1.19 trillion (EUR 227.5 billion) at the end of the month, according to data published by the Finance Ministry. The debt-to-GDP ratio rose by 1.2 percentage points during one month only, from 60.2% at the end of April to 61.4% at the end of May.<\/p>\n
The rise, subject to revision, was partly an effect of the exchange rate variation, illustrating the risk of currency weakening for the country\u2019s public financing metrics.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The debt-to-GDP ratio crossed the 60% threshold during this year, from 59.3% at the end of 2025. In its August sovereign update, Moody\u2019s forecasted the government debt to rise to 64.5% of GDP in 2028 from 59.3% in 2025, matching Fitch\u2019s projection and remaining above the projected 57.9% median for similarly rated peers. Earlier in July, Fitch warned that 53% of Romanian government debt is denominated in foreign currency, making the debt trajectory vulnerable to depreciation of the Romanian leu. This risk moderately materialised during May.<\/p>\n
The debt-to-GDP ratios for April and May, as well, are subject to revision after the Q2 GDP is released\u00a0<\/strong>and used for the calculator of the ratios for the two months. The ratio exceeded 60% (specifically 60.1%) at the end of March,\u00a0and this figure will be revised only marginally, probably to remain above 60% when final Q1 data is released.<\/p>\n May’s public debt figures reflect the impact of the currency depreciation on the country\u2019s indebtedness.\u00a0<\/strong>A large part of the rise in the public debt expressed in local currency, as well as of the debt-to-GDP ratio, is caused by the local currency\u2019s weakening from RON 5.14 to EUR at the end of April to RON 5.25 to EUR one month later.\u00a0<\/p>\n When expressed in euros, Romania\u2019s public debt denominated in foreign currency increased only by EUR 134 million (RON 703 million) during the month to EUR 126.6 billion at the end of May. But when expressed in local currency, the country\u2019s debt denominated in foreign currency rose by RON 14.3 billion (EUR 2.7 billion), with the differential of over EUR 2.5 billion being the effect of the exchange rate variation and not of supplementary debt issued by the government. This effect has been visible during Q1 as well, as the local currency traded at RON 5.1 to EUR at the end of 2025.<\/p>\n This does not mean, however, that the rise in Romania\u2019s indebtedness increased during May only because of the exchange rate effects. Besides the EUR 134 million (RON 703 million) increase in the foreign-denominated debt, the debt denominated in local currency rose by RON 8.2 billion (EUR 1.56 billion) as a result of net issuance of new debt, specifically government bonds.<\/p>\n