The total retail sales volume in Romania edged up in May compared to April (+1.3% in seasonally and workday-adjusted terms), while remaining some 5% below the volumes seen before the rise in prices occurred in mid-2025 due to the electricity price liberalisation and the VAT rate hike. In annual terms, the sales were 4.4% down y\/y, a minor improvement from -5.6% y\/y.<\/p>\n
The outlook remains moderate for this year, with private consumption expected to contract by 1.8% y\/y under the Spring Forecast issued by the state forecasting body. The base effects will improve the annual performance in H2, after the average 5.5% y\/y contraction seen in January-May (dragged down by the -7.9% y\/y plunge in non-food goods, compared to a -3.7% y\/y contraction in the more stable sales of food goods). But, compared to H1, households’ consumption is not expected to improve later in the year (in seasonally adjusted terms).<\/p>\n
A detailed breakdown shows distinct patterns for the food, non-food, and fuel segments. While food sales are stabilising at a lower level compared to the first half of 2025 (some 5% lower), non-food sales are more volatile and better reflect consumer sentiment.<\/p>\n
Given the discretionary nature of part of the non-food purchases, households cut back more abruptly on this segment in August and then in January \u2013 but they have corrected, in January-May this year, their excessive precautionary steps. In seasonally and workday-adjusted terms, non-food sales rose by 3.6% in May compared to January.<\/p>\n
Notably, the category of FMCG has already shown signs of full recovery in Q1. Sales of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) in Romania increased by 1.9% y\/y in volume terms in the first quarter of 2026 across modern and traditional retail formats, according to estimates by consultancy firm NielsenIQ. The figures suggest that the shock caused last year by higher VAT rates and other fiscal measures has largely been absorbed by higher-income households, with demand for everyday consumer goods showing signs of stabilisation.<\/p>\n
NielsenIQ estimated that the FMCG market expanded by 6.5% y\/y in value terms during the quarter, supported by a 4.5% y\/y increase in prices. Inflation in FMCG products remained significantly below overall consumer price inflation, which was driven mainly by higher energy costs, rents, and fuel prices.<\/p>\n
Car fuel sales are pretty volatile, but the Middle East crisis does not seem to have diminished domestic retail consumption, which has been on a slow downward path since mid-2025, driven rather by households’ budgets.<\/p>\n
Retail sales broadly reflect households’ budgets. The average net wage decreased by some 5% y\/y in Q4 last year and Q1 this year.<\/p>\n
Even after aligning to lower real incomes, retail sales in Romania in the first months of 2025 are higher than those in 2023 \u2013 before incomes in the budgetary and private sectors, as well as pensions, were pushed up by administrative measures amid an intense electoral year. Wages are also higher in real terms compared to 2023.<\/p>\n