Experts of Babes Bolyai University in Cluj-Napoca, compiling the Romanian Economic Monitor (RoEM), forecasted economic contraction of 0.5% this year amid political instability, a sharp revision from the 0.2% growth projected after the chronicisation of the \u00a0Middle East war and a more optimistic 0.8% growth set at the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n
The economy will return to growth with a robust 2.2% advance in 2027, driven by the positive effects of fiscal consolidation and lower inflation, according to the RoEM-UBB forecast.<\/p>\n
The main element seen as dragging down the economic growth this year, as well as restoring growth in 2027, is private consumption.<\/p>\n
“Given the global context and the internal political instability in Romania, our new forecast indicates a GDP decline of 0.5%, which would correspond to a moderate economic recession for the entire year 2026,\u201d the report reads.<\/p>\n
However, despite this scenario, analysts still see reasons for moderate optimism. In the longer term, there is potential for stabilising the economy, the analysts argue: tempering inflation could lead to a recovery in purchasing power and domestic consumption, the effects of fiscal measures could gradually fade, and the business environment could adapt to the new economic realities.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The analysts expect that Romania will continue its fiscal consolidation process, with the result of stronger investor confidence and better public debt financing conditions.\u00a0<\/p>\n
These developments could create favourable premises for the relaunch of economic growth, under the RoEM forecast.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cIn this context, our estimate for 2027 remains positive, with the forecast indicating a growth in Romania’s GDP of 2.2%,” concluded Levente Sz\u00e1sz, the coordinator of the RoEM-UBB team.<\/p>\n