Romania\u2019s BCR Manufacturing PMI has further improved to 47.5 points in April from 46.6 points in March and an absolute low value of 45.3 points in February, while remaining deep in the contractionary half of the scale with the Middle East war dragging down the overall performance and external demand acting as the sole positive driver, according to Erste Group. That said, Erste Group says it expected March to deliver another weak reading for industrial output after a combined 2.6% y\/y contraction in January-February (-4.4% y\/y for the manufacturing sector), reflecting the effects of the recent war with Iran.<\/p>\n
Erste still anticipates that 2026 will mark the first year of growth in industrial production after three consecutive years of contraction. Early-year developments, however, point to heightened downside risks.\u00a0While sizeable EU security-related investments and Germany’s substantial fiscal stimulus for infrastructure and defence should support European industrial production, the recovery is likely to remain uneven, with energy-intensive sectors continuing to face pressure from elevated costs.<\/p>\n
In April, the Output Index part of Manufacturing PMI reported a slower pace of contraction, although demand challenges persist.<\/p>\n
New orders recorded a modest relative improvement, but the index remained contractionary. Qualitative feedback from the survey indicates that demand remained subdued, with firms reporting fewer enquiries amid heightened uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Inflationary pressures were also cited as a factor weighing on already constrained customer budgets. On a more positive note, the New Export Orders Index moved above the neutral threshold in April, marking only the second such occurrence in the history of the series and one of its highest readings on record. This development reinforces the view that external demand is becoming more supportive.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Overall business confidence regarding the outlook for the next 12 months weakened further in April, falling to a new record low. Sentiment was weighed down by concerns over the challenging economic environment and heightened uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.<\/p>\n
Manufacturing PMI in Romania averaged 48.24 points from 2024, when it was calculated for the first time, until 2026, reaching an all-time high of 52.00 points in May of 2024.<\/p>\n
The headline figure is the Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI), which is a weighted average of the following five indices: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers\u2019 Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). For the PMI calculation, the Suppliers\u2019 Delivery Times Index is inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction to the other indices.<\/p>\n